Why no action on solar won't work out well for the electrical utilities
There is a lot of discussion in Anguilla at the moment about the need to implement renewable energy policies. Most interesting is the opportunity for solar PV to make a difference in the average Anguillian household. Nobody doubts how effective solar PV can be when interconnected with the homeowner's electricity supply, something we called net-metering. Anguilla has a plentiful energy resource in the sun, and harnessing it to provide electricity has become highly cost effective at the residential level, offering tremendous return on investment.

The current discussions revolve around advice being offered by
Castalia Strategic Advisors, a Washington based consultancy, who have been employed by the Government to advise on the adoption of renewable energy an Anguilla.

While still in initial consultations, the consultants have presented the opinion that
net-metering is
not the best way to go forward, and that a obscure arrangement known as net-billing should be adopted. Under net-billing, the homeowner gets to buy back the electricity he has created for much more that he gets credited for the same electricity. This arrangement is virtually unknown in the developed world and has never been successful in increasing the adoption of residential solar anywhere in the world, as it takes away the financial benefits of installing solar.
While this is ideal for the utility, who gets a virtually free source of electricity they can sell at great profit, it is disastrous for the solar system owner and as such, will be doomed to fail. It is likely that there will be no movement towards the adoption of residential solar if this arrangement is part of the new law.
One of the reasons why grid-interconnected solar is the preferred way to adopt solar is the high cost of storage. We are all familiar with off-grid solar, popularized by log cabins in the woods having a solar system that stores the energy by day and provides electricity at night. For situations where there is no utility supply, this is a great option and one I use on my warehouse.

Off-grid solar has not been financially feasible for two reasons - the high cost of batteries and the equally high cost of solar panels. Solar panels have been coming down in price so dramatically that they are no longer a barrier to entry for most people. Batteries remain a huge problem for everyone, particularly the electric car industry. If electric cars could store enough energy for a 500 mile trip, recharge in a few hours, and last for the lifetime of the car, it would be over for gasoline. Consequently, there is tremendous funding and effort being put into the development of the ideal battery technology. Research into nano technologies show great promise and there is hardly a high level research lab that isn't looking at this problem. The American, United Kingdom, Japanese and German academic institutes and engineering companies are working furiously to find solution, because the entity that patents the solution will revolutionize the world and make huge profits. This is the
Manhattan Project of our times.
Meanwhile, back in Anguilla, the utility, Government and the consultants are continuing down the road of de-incentivizing solar pv, much to the frustration of the population. Because of the lack of a workable storage solution, there is no option. What will happen when there is?
And this is the point of this post. At some point in the near future, a
battery technology will be discovered that will be cheap, robust and reliable. It will take as much extra power as you can generate, store it efficiently, and last for your lifetime. It will not care about depth of discharge, charge rates or water levels, it will just work. This
disruptive technology is inevitable because of the demand in the electric vehicle industry. Can anyone seriously suggest that all that research and effort will not result in a technological revolution? The lead acid batte
ry, invented in 1859, will go the way of film cameras and the vinyl records. In fact, the lead acid battery is older than those technologies.
When that day comes, then all of this discussion on net-metering will be irrelevant. The homeowner will simply disconnect from the grid and enjoy his own electricity supply for only the cost of his initial investment. He will never have a power outage or an electricity bill. This is exactly the scenario so many Anguillians have asked for.
The danger to the utility is not the introduction of met-metering, as this encourages the homeowner to invest in clean energy and supply a portion of it to the other grid users. The large and inevitable danger is that the law prevents the connection of systems to the grid, frustrating the home-owners until battery technology catches up and the homeowners install solar and move off the grid altogether. At that point, there may be a mass exodus of well-funded customers from the grid, leaving the poorer customers to bear the brunt of the fixed cost of operation.
Anyone who thinks this can't happen has only to look back a few years. There was a utility in Anguilla that had a monopoly on their services and was charging ridiculous rates. They owned the cables that delivered the service to the customers, and with that lock could keep out any threat of competition. That utility was, of course, Cable & Wireless. When international calls were $2/minute, this utility told us they had to be paid the cost of distributing the service and there was nothing they could do to reduce it. They told us introducing competition would result in lower quality services and hurt the consumer. Meanwhile, they made enormous profits.
But then everything changed, along came the wireless phone, high speed internet, competition in the market and Skype. The cost of a long distance call dropped to 2 cents per minute and the utility was forced to compete with other companies. Most importantly to this article, they were still stuck with the responsibility of maintaining the physical network as some customers had to have hard lines.
In this case, the Government of Anguilla made decisions that benefited the consumer, not the utility, and Anguillians gained choice. The same needs to happen to the electricity network.
The focus of the Government should not be on
whether to allow connection to the grid, but how best to ensure people remain connected to the grid, while increasing the adoption of renewable energy sources to protect us from climate change and energy price volatility.